Format:
graph. Darst., Lit. S. 31-32
ISSN:
0003-0554
Content:
We propose a comprehensive statistical model for analyzing multiparty, district-level elections. This model, which provides a tool for comparative politics research analogous to that which regression/analysis provides in the American two party context, can be used to explain or predict how geographic distributions of electoral results depend upon economic conditions, neighbourhood ethnic compositions, campaign spending, and other features of the election campaign or aggregate areas. We also provide new graphical representations for data exploration, model evaluation, and substantive interpretation. We illustrate the use of this model by attempting to resolve a controversy over the size of and trend in the electoral advantage of incumbency in Britain. Contrary to previous analyses, all based on measures now known to be biased, we demonstrate that the advantage is small but meaningful, varies substantially across the parties, and is not growing. Finally, we show how to estimate the party from which each party's advantage is predominantly drawn. (American Political Science Review / FUB)
In:
American political science review, New York, NY [u.a.] : Cambridge Univ. Press, 1906, 93(1999), 1, Seite 15-32, 0003-0554
In:
volume:93
In:
year:1999
In:
number:1
In:
pages:15-32
Language:
English
