Umfang:
Online-Ressource (284 Seiten)
ISBN:
9781442235878
Serie:
Security and Professional Intelligence Education Series
Inhalt:
The text explains the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst's mental models of a subject as well as the analyst's reasoning process. It includes dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games, case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems, and a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.
Inhalt:
Intro -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Foreword -- Preface -- Chapter 1 The Intelligence Analyst and Synthesis -- Models in Intelligence and Policy -- The Tools of Synthesis -- The Organization of this Book -- Chapter 2 Modeling in Intelligence -- Using Models to Understand Systems -- Using Models to Enable Analytic Collaboration -- Using Models to Explain Analytic Judgment -- Challenges to the Use of Models -- Determinism, Causality, and Prediction -- Case Study: Understanding Terrorist Organization -- Summary -- Chapter 3 Mental Models in Intelligence Analysis -- Models of Thinking -- Mental Models as Artifacts of Thinking -- Intelligence Analysts and Their Mental Models -- Chapter 4 Translating Mental Models to Explicit Sharable Models -- Framing and Representing an Intelligence Problem -- Tacit-Explicit Capture and Interaction -- The Tacit-Explicit Translation Process -- Understanding Mental Models and Cognitive Processes to Enhance Analytic Rigor -- Chapter 5 Explicit Models in Structured and Quantitative Analysis -- Structured and Quantitative Analysis -- First, a Caution -- Explicit Models in the Analytic Process -- The Explicit Modeling Process -- Case Study: An Example of the Explicit Modeling Process -- Summary -- Chapter 6 Explicit Models of Analytic Thinking -- Expressing Analytic Thought in Explicit Models -- Modeling the Concepts that Precede Analysis -- Modeling in Counterfactual Reasoning -- Modeling in Convergent Reasoning from Evidence to Inference -- Modeling Comparative Reasoning about Alternative Hypotheses -- Integrating Target and Analysis Models -- Chapter 7 Explicit Models of the Targets of Analysis -- Models of Data and Models of Theory -- Models and Model Prediction in Intelligence -- Abstracting Real Target Systems -- The Validity of Models -- Descriptive Models in Analysis.
Anmerkung:
Description based upon print version of record
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 9781442235861
Weitere Ausg.:
Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe ISBN 978-1-4422-3586-1
Sprache:
Englisch
Fachgebiete:
Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Schlagwort(e):
Wirtschaftswissenschaften
;
Datenanalyse
;
Quantitative Methode
;
Electronic books
