Format:
Online-Ressource (22 p)
Edition:
Online-Ausg.
ISBN:
1513508385
,
9781513508382
Series Statement:
IMF Working Papers: Working Paper No. 15 / 135
Content:
We use a semi structural model to estimate neutral rates in the United States. Our Bayesian estimation incorporates prior information on the output gap and potential output (based on a production function approach) and accounts for unconventional monetary policies at the ZLB by using estimates of “shadow” policy rates. We find that our approach provides more plausible results than standard maximum likelihood estimates for the unobserved variables in the model. Results show a significant trend decline in the neutral real rate over time, driven only in part by a decline in potential growth whereas other factors (including excess global savings) matter. Neutral rates likely turned negative forward
Additional Edition:
Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Pescatori, Andrea Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015 ISBN 9781513508382
Language:
English
DOI:
10.5089/9781513508382.001
