Format:
1 online resource (214 pages)
ISBN:
9781107112087
,
9781107112087
,
9781107531024
,
9781316282472
Content:
Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made
Note:
Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 12 Feb 2016)
Additional Edition:
ISBN 9781107112087
Additional Edition:
Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Burgman, Mark A., 1956 - Trusting judgements Cambridge (United Kingdom) : Cambridge University Press, 2016 ISBN 9781107531024
Language:
English
Subjects:
Natural Sciences
,
Political Science
Keywords:
Politikberatung
;
Politischer Berater
;
Politische Entscheidung
DOI:
10.1017/CBO9781316282472
URL:
Volltext
(URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
URL:
Volltext
(lizenzpflichtig)
