UID:
kobvindex_DGP1642630845
Format:
graph. Darst., Lit. S. 147
ISSN:
0043-2652
Content:
In the first months of 2003, uncertainties associated with the Iraq-conflict impacted on the world economy and the tentative recovery from the recession in 2001 came to a halt. In the industrial countries, capacity utilization declined significantly almost everywhere. While production in the United States and the United Kingdom continued to grow slightly in the first quarter, output stagnated in Euroland and in Japan. Despite the relief associated with the end of the war and a return of oil prices into the target range, growth in the industrial countries has not rebounded yet, in contrast to what had been widely expected. This points to deeper rooted problems, such as the legacy from the years of the IT boom and the downgrading of growth expectations following the events of September 11, 2001, which continue to work as a drag on the economy. Against this background, monetary policy has been loosened further, and the central banks in the United States and in Euroland are expected to lower interest rates again soon. This time, the ECB is likely to make a larger step than the Fed as monetary conditions in the euro area have tightened in recent weeks due to the pronounced appreciation of the euro. Fiscal policy remains expansionary in the United States and the United Kingdom but is expected to be neutral in Euroland and in Japan, given that fiscal consolidation remains high on the agenda for the medium term here. Growth in the industrial countries will continue to be sluggish until the middle of this year and begin to pick up in the second half of 2003. In the United States, output will accelerate significantly as a result of the strong policy stimulus and improved competitiveness due to the lower dollar. Recovery in Euroland, and similarly in Japan, will be comparatively slow because exports are dampened by an appreciated currency and domestic demand has little momentum due in part to significant structural problems. In 2003, real GDP will rise by 0.6 percent and 1.2 percent in Euroland and Japan, respectively, compared to 2.4 percent growth in the United States. In 2004, the recovery will gain strength. While growth will remain moderate compared to the boom at the end of the 1990s, capacity utilization is expected to increase in the course of the year. Real GDP will grow by 3.5 percent in the United States, somewhat faster than potential output. In Euroland and in Japan, average growth will be near its trend of the past ten years at 2.2 and 1.1 percent, respectively. Given this outlook unemployment is likely to continue to rise for the time being. Labour markets will start to improve in 2004 only. The increase in consumer prices will remain low. It is, however unlikely that the industrial countries on aggregate slip into deflation given that monetary policy is very loose, which in the United States and in Euroland - in contrary to the developments in Japan during the 1990s - is also reflected in the development of monetary aggregates. (Die Weltwirtschaft / SWP)
In:
Die Weltwirtschaft, Berlin : Springer, 1950, (2003), 2, Seite 131-147, 0043-2652
Language:
German
