UID:
kobvindex_DGP1642631027
Format:
graph. Darst., Tab., Lit. s. 164-165
ISSN:
0043-2652
Content:
The German economy has been stagnating for three years, now. In the first quarter of 2003, real GDP even fell, with an annual rate of 0.9 percent. It had decreased also in the quarter before and the underutilization of capacities has meanwhile become significant, although capacity utilization is not as low as in the recessions of the 70s, the 8Os and the 90s. Real GDP declined in the first quarter despite rising foreign and domestic demand. But the latter, again, fell increasingly on imported goods and services - possibly as a result of raw materials imports being pre-drawn as firms and households expected supply shortages due to the conflict in Iraq. Both, private consumption and investment in machinery and equipment increased whereas investment in buildings declined sharply as a consequence of unfavourable weather conditions. The situation on the labour market has deteriorated further in the course of this year. Employment has fallen and unemployment has risen. In April, the unemployment rate was 10.7 percent. The expectation of a soon acceleration of production after the end of the war in Iraq has not materialized. Despite the fact that geopolitical tensions have eased and the oil price has fallen markedly, the business climate has not improved significantly. Orders to manufacturing and to construction even fell sharply in March. All this points to a decline in industrial production in the second quarter. In the service sector, which contributes about three quarters to GDP, production is likely to have fallen, too. All in all, we expect aggregate production to have fallen slightly, again, in the secon quarter of 2003. (Die Weltwirtschaft / SWP)
In:
Die Weltwirtschaft, Berlin : Springer, 1950, (2003), 2, Seite 148-165, 0043-2652
Language:
German
