UID:
kobvindex_DGP1642715131
Format:
graph. Darst., Tab., Lit. S. 55-56
ISSN:
0043-2652
Content:
The German economy stagnated in 2002. Real GDP only increased by 0.2 percent, even less than in 2001 (0.6 percent). In the fourth quarter of 2002, aggregate production fell slightly. Consumer spending stagnated as a result of virtually constant real disposable income and the losses in financial wealth associated with the fall in stock market prices. In addition, impulses from foreign demand, which had supported growth in the preceding quarters, became smaller. Growth was fostered, however, by the stabilization of investment. Investment increased for the first time since the end of 2000. While some of the growth may have to do with the repair of the damages caused by the flood in east Germany last summer, the development still gives rise to the hope that the abstinence of investors has been overcome; this would be the basis for a new upswing. As regards the cyclical situation at the start of 2003, the leading indicators give no clear signals. The business climate has improved somewhat and in contrast to the situation a year ago, the improvment ist not confined to the expectations component but also pertains to the current assessment of the business situation. A thorough improvement of the business sentiment is, however, severely hampered by the risks associated with the military intervention of the United States in Iraq. Industrial production and orders fell sharply in December. However, part of this development may have been caused by calendar effects. In our view, real GDP stagnated in the first quarter of 2003. On the labor market, the situation has again deteriorated after the turn of the year. In February, 4.7 million persons were registered jobless; this is the highest February figure since 1998. (Die Weltwirtschaft / SWP)
In:
Die Weltwirtschaft, Berlin : Springer, 1950, (2003), 1, Seite 31-56, 0043-2652
Language:
German
