Umfang:
Online-Ressource (42 p)
Ausgabe:
Online-Ausg.
ISBN:
1451850301
,
9781451850307
Serie:
IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 01/80
Inhalt:
This paper provides an overview of the potential macroeconomic effects of HIV/AIDS in Botswana, focusing on the key channels through which the pandemic is likely to affect the economic outlook and on the uncertainties involved. To estimate the impact of HIV/AIDS, a dual-economy equilibrium model is constructed and simulated under different scenarios. Depending on exactly how AIDS affects the outlook, GDP growth is projected to fall from around 51⁄2 percent a year without the pandemic to between 11⁄2 and 21⁄2 percent a year with AIDS. Non-negligible redistribution effects across sectors and labor skill categories are also likely to arise. Finally, the paper draws attention to the potential effects of HIV/AIDS on the long-term fiscal position of Botswana, highlighting the need for increased international support and/or lower drug prices so that the widespread introduction of anti-retroviral drug treatments is feasible
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.5089/9781451850307.001
URL:
Volltext
(IMF e-Library)
