Umfang:
1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten)
,
Illustrationen
ISBN:
9781484301180
Serie:
IMF working paper WP/16, 71
Inhalt:
Benchmarking methods can be used to extrapolate (or 'nowcast') low-frequency benchmarks on the basis of available high-frequency indicators. Quarterly national accounts are a typical example, where a number of monthly and quarterly indicators of economic activity are used to calculate preliminary annual estimates of GDP. Using both simulated and real-life national accounts data, this paper aims at assessing the prediction accuracy of three benchmarking methods widely used in the national accounts compilation: the proportional Denton method, the proportional Cholette-Dagum method with first-order autoregressive error, and the regression-based Chow-Lin method. The results show that the Cholette-Dagum method provides the most accurate extrapolations when the indicator and the annual benchmarks move along the same trend. However, the Denton and Chow-Lin methods could prevail in real-life cases when the quarterly indicator temporarily deviates from the target series
Weitere Ausg.:
Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Marini, Marco Nowcasting Annual National Accounts with Quarterly Indicators: An Assessment of Widely Used Benchmarking Methods Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2016 ISBN 9781484301180
Sprache:
Englisch
Schlagwort(e):
Arbeitspapier
;
Graue Literatur
DOI:
10.5089/9781484301180.001
