UID:
almahu_9948196763202882
Format:
1 online resource (xiii, 321 pages) :
,
illustrations
ISBN:
0470033312
,
9780470033319
,
0470033304
,
9780470033302
,
0470029994
,
9780470029992
Series Statement:
Statistics in practice
Content:
Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably.
Note:
Fundamentals of probability and judgement -- The elicitation context -- The psychology of judgement under uncertainty -- The elicitation of probabilities -- Eliciting distributions : general -- Eliciting and fitting a parametric distribution -- Eliciting distributions : uncertainty and imprecision -- Evaluating elicitation -- Multiple experts -- Published examples of the formal elicitation of expert opinion -- Guidance on best practice -- Areas for research.
Additional Edition:
Print version: Uncertain judgements. London ; Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, ©2006 ISBN 0470029994
Additional Edition:
ISBN 9780470029992
Language:
English
Keywords:
Electronic books.
;
Electronic books.
;
Electronic books.
URL:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1002/0470033312
URL:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1002/0470033312
URL:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1002/0470033312
