UID:
edocfu_9958068239402883
Format:
1 online resource (42 p.)
ISBN:
1-4843-0198-6
,
1-4843-3926-6
,
1-4843-1286-4
Series Statement:
IMF working paper ; WP/13/91
Content:
The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic effect of social and political instability on output. Using a panel of up to 183 countries from 1980 to 2010, the results of the paper suggest that social conflicts have a significant and negative impact on output in the short-term with the magnitude of the effect being a function of the intensity of political instability. The results also show that the recovery of output over the medium-term depends on the ability of the country to implement, in the aftermath of a social instability episode, reforms aimed at improving the level of governance. The results are robust to different checks and estimation strategies.
Note:
Description based upon print version of record.
,
Cover; The Dynamic Effect of Social and Political Instability on Output: The Role of Reforms; 1. Introduction; 2. Data and descriptive statistics; 3. Empirical Analysis; 3.1 Short-term; 3.2 Medium-term; 3.3 The Effect of Reforms; 3.3.1 Governance and probability of political instability; 3.3.2 Governance, induced political instability and growth; 4. Conclusions and Policy Implications; References; Annex-Data Description; Table; Table 1. Summary Statistics; Table 2. The contemporaneous effect of social conflicts on output-OLS
,
Table 3. The contemporaneous effect of social conflicts on output-OLSTable 4. The contemporaneous effect of social conflicts on output-OLS; Table 5. The contemporaneous effect of social conflicts on output-GMM; Figure; Figure 1. Evolution of cabinet changes across regions; Figure 2. Co-movement of different social instability indicators; Figure 3. Contemporaneous growth and cabinet changes; Figure 4. Medium-term output changes and cabinet changes; Figure 5. The dynamic effect of cabinet changes on output (percentage points)
,
Figure 6. The dynamic effect of cabinet changes on output (percentage points) - Robustness checkFigure 7. The dynamic effect of cabinet changes on output (percentage points) - Robustness check; Figure 8. The dynamic effect of social instability indicators on output (percentage points); Figure 9. The dynamic effect of cabinet changes conditioning for reforms in governance (percentage points); Figure 10. The dynamic effect of social instability conditioning for reforms in governance -within 2 years (percentage points)
,
Figure 11. The dynamic effect of cabinet changes conditioning for reforms in governance (percentage points)-Instrumental VariablesAppendix; Figure A1. The dynamic effect of cabinet changes conditioning for reforms in product markets (percentage points); Figure A2. The dynamic effect of cabinet changes conditioning for reforms in labor markets (percentage points)
,
English
Additional Edition:
ISBN 1-4843-8168-8
Language:
English
