Format:
1 Online-Ressource (185 Seiten)
ISBN:
9783030887971
Series Statement:
Future of Business and Finance Series
Note:
Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources
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Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- 1: Introduction -- Risk Management Versus Risk Leadership -- References -- 2: Risk and Risk Perception: Why We Are Not Rational in the Face of Risk -- Risk and Uncertainty -- Risk, Probabilities, and Rationality -- Psychological Aspects on Risk Perception -- Risk Metrics -- Risk Aversion -- Key Takeaways for Risk Leadership -- References -- 3: Expected Utility, Prospect Theory, and the Allais Paradox: Why Reference Points Are Important -- Bernoulli and Expected Utility Theory -- Why Expected Utility Does Not Work -- The Allais Paradox -- Prospect Theory -- Reference Points and Loss Aversion -- The Isolation Effect -- Framing -- The Safety Effect -- The Reflection Effect -- The Insulation Effect -- So How Do We Contextualize Risks in Practice? -- Key Takeaways for Risk Leadership -- References -- 4: Confirmation Bias and Anchoring Effect: Why the First Piece of Information is Key in Negotiations -- Confirmation Bias -- Anchoring Effect -- Anchoring and Being a Good Negotiator -- Key Takeaways for Risk Leadership -- References -- 5: Framing and the Ostrich Effect: Why Our Decisions Depend On How Information Is Presented -- Framing and the Ostrich Effect -- Framing and Loss Aversion -- Framing and Financial Literacy -- Distortions in Risk Perception -- Distortions in Risk Transfer -- Empirical Investigations into the Ostrich Effect -- Key Takeaways for Risk Leadership -- References -- 6: Emotions and Zero Risk Bias: Why We Make Bad Decisions and Overspend on Risk Avoidance -- Zero-Risk Bias -- When We Hate to Lose: Aversion to a Sure Loss -- Key Takeaways for Risk Leadership -- References -- 7: Endowment Effect and Status-Quo Bias: Why We Stick with Bad Decisions -- Risky Decisions and the Endowment Effect -- Endowment Effect and Loss Aversion -- Status Quo Bias -- Experimental Tests on Static Decisions
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Experiments on Sequential Decisions -- Explanation 1: Rational Decision-Making -- Explanation 2: Psychological Commitment -- Explanation 3: Cognitive Misperceptions -- Applications of the Endowment Effect to the Status Quo Bias -- Escalation of Commitment -- Key Takeaways for Risk Leadership -- References -- 8: Overconfidence and Self-Blindness: Why We Think We Are Better Than We Actually Are -- Managerial Overconfidence -- Overestimation -- Forecasts and the Planning Fallacy -- Illusion of Control -- Overplacement -- Overprecision -- Overconfidence and Gender -- The Confidence Gap -- Imposter Syndrome: Underconfidence in Women -- Men Promote Men: Narcissism or Old Boys'Club? -- Managerial Overconfidence, Corporate Risk Management, and Selective Self-Attribution -- Key Takeaways for Risk Leadership -- References -- 9: The Low-Probability Puzzle: Why We Insure Our Cellphone But Not Our Home -- Emotions Override Probability For LRHC Events -- The Catastrophe Insurance Market Puzzle -- Transaction Costs -- Inefficient Financial Markets -- Asymmetric Information -- Limited Liability -- Diversification in Time -- Regret Aversion -- Key Takeaways for Risk Leadership -- References -- 10: Fairness, Diversity, Groupthink, and Peer Effects: Why Other People Matter for Our Risky Decisions -- Fairness and Cooperation: Lessons from Game Theory -- Prisoner's Dilemma -- Dictator Game -- Ultimatum Game -- The Impact of Groupthink -- When Does the Phenomenon Occur? -- What Are the Symptoms of Groupthink? -- What Are Symptoms of Defective Decision-making in Groups? -- Debiasing Strategies to Limit Groupthink -- Diversity and Independent Directors -- Peer Effects, Stereotypes, and Company Culture -- Peer Effects -- Company Culture -- Stereotypes -- Key Takeaways for Risk Leadership -- References
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11: Hindsight Bias: Why We Think We Are Good Predictors Even Though We Are Not -- Hindsight Bias -- Why Do People Exhibit Hindsight Bias? -- Consequences of Hindsight Bias in Practice -- Myopia -- Overconfidence -- Effect Size -- What Can We Do About Hindsight Bias? -- Consider-the-opposite -- Expertise -- Visualisation Techniques -- Key Takeaways for Risk Leadership -- References -- 12: The 10 Commandments and How We Can Develop Strategic Risk Leadership Competencies -- The 10 Commandments -- Insights from Behavioral Sciences on Our Decision-Making Processes -- Self-Leadership and Habits -- Confidence -- References -- Appendix 1: Probability Fundamentals -- The Axioms of Probability Theory -- Probability Interpretations -- Basic Rules and Definitions for Calculating Probabilities -- Theorem of Bayes -- The Monty Hall Problem -- The Paradox of the False Positives -- Appendix 2: Decision Theory Fundamentals -- What Is Decision Theory? -- The Basic Model -- Dominance Principles -- Statewise Dominance Principle -- (First-Order) Stochastic Dominance Principle -- Classical Principles of Decision Theory -- The Mean-Principle (μ-Principle) -- The Mean-Variance-Principle (μ-σ-Principle) -- Appendix 3: Risk Aversion and Expected Utility Fundamentals -- Expected Utility Theory and Risk Aversion -- Certainty Equivalent and Risk Premium -- The Arrow-Pratt Coefficients of Risk Aversion -- Appendix 4: Game Theory Fundamentals -- What is Game Theory? -- Basic Assumptions or "Rules" of a Game -- The Normal Form of a Game -- The Extensive Form of a Game -- A Famous Game: The Prisoner's Dilemma -- Equilibrium in Dominant Strategies -- Nash Equilibrium -- Multiple Nash Equilibria in Pure Strategies -- No Nash Equilibria in Pure Strategies -- Nash Equilibrium in Mixed Strategies -- Subgame Perfect Equilibrium -- References -- Index
Additional Edition:
Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Hofmann, Annette The Ten Commandments of Risk Leadership Cham : Springer International Publishing AG,c2022 ISBN 9783030887964
Language:
English
