Format:
21 Seiten
ISBN:
978-3-86205-487-9
Content:
Raising Expectations under Uncertainty: The Blind Spot in Abenomics This paper first summarizes the development of the Japanese economy under the fourth year of Abenomics. It shows that GDP growth is still sluggish and inflation is still far from the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target. The paper then presents major policy changes that have occurred over the last year: the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP), the delay of the consumption tax hike, a fourth fiscal stimulus package, and the BoJ’s negative interest rate policy (NIRP). The analysis shows that Abenomics is mainly relying on monetary measures, since structural reforms are only progressing slowly and the high amount of government debt limits the room for fiscal stimulus. However, even after applying a negative interest rate policy, the effects on the inflation rate have still failed to materialize. The latter part of the paper explores why fiscal and monetary measures have failed to jump-start the Japanese economy so far. The neglect of uncertainty is presented as one major reason. Finally, the paper concludes by evaluating the likelihood of different scenarios for the further monetary strategy of the BoJ – which seems to be the only viable policy option left.
In:
Japan 2016, 2016, (2016), Seite 116-136, 978-3-86205-487-9
In:
year:2016
In:
pages:116-136
Language:
German
Keywords:
Japan
;
Wirtschaft
DOI:
10.48796/20230706-005
URN:
urn:nbn:de:0308-20230706-005-4
Author information:
Tiefenbach, Tim 1981-
