NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making, pp.155-181
Monte Carlo techniques are increasingly used in pesticide exposure modelling to evaluate the uncertainty in predictions arising from uncertainty in input parameters and to estimate the confidence that should be assigned to modelling results. The approach typically involves running a deterministic model repeatedly for a large number of input values sampled from statistical distributions. The present chapter summarizes the results of three different projects demonstrating that subjective choices made in Monte Carlo modelling introduce variability into probabilistic modelling of pesticide leaching, and that the results need to be interpreted with care.
Environment ; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science ; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice ; Environmental Management ; Climate Change ; Soil Science & Conservation ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences