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  • 1
    UID:
    gbv_1871455863
    ISSN: 1869-8999
    Content: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all areas of our lives. Among other outcomes, the academic literature and popular media both discuss the potential effects of the pandemic on fertility. As fertility is an important determinant of population development and population forecasts are important for policy decisions and planning, we need to address to which extent fertility forecasts performed before the pandemic still apply. Using Monte Carlo forecasting based on principal components of fertility rates, we quantify the effects of the pandemic on fertility for 22 countries and discuss whether forecasts made prior to the pandemic need adjustment based on more recent data. Among the studied countries, 14 countries show no significant effect of the pandemic at all, while six countries have significantly lowered numbers of births in comparison to counterfactual trajectories that assume that past trends will hold. These countries are primarily in the Mediterranean and East Asia. For Finland and South Korea, there is statistical evidence for increased fertility in the early phases of the pandemic. In all cases with statistically significant fertility differentials caused by the pandemic, reproductive behavior normalized quickly. Therefore, we find no evidence for long-term effects of the pandemic on fertility, leading to the conclusion that pre-pandemic fertility forecasts still apply.
    In: Comparative population studies, Wiesbaden : Bundesinst. für Bevölkerungsforschung, 2010, 48(2023), Seite 19-46, 1869-8999
    In: volume:48
    In: year:2023
    In: pages:19-46
    Language: English
    Keywords: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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  • 2
    UID:
    gbv_1800652402
    ISSN: 1869-8999
    Content: Industrialised economies are experiencing a decline in mortality alongside low fertility rates - a situation that puts social security systems under severe pressure. Population ageing is associated not only with longer periods of pension claims but also smaller cohorts eventually entering the labour market. This threatens the sustainability of pay-as-you-go social security systems for implementing or further improving appropriate reform measures; adequate forecasts of the future population structure are needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to forecast the number of pensions in Germany up to 2040. Our model considers trends in population development, labour force participation, and early retirement, as well as the effects of pension reforms. Principal component analysis is used to manage the high degree of complexity involved in forecasting trends in old-age and disability pension claims, which arises because of cross-correlations between old-age and disability pension rates, different age groups, and gender. Time series methods enable the inclusion of autocorrelations of the pension rate time series in the model. Monte Carlo simulation is used to quantify future risk. The latter is an important feature of our model, as the future development of the population and, eventually, the pension claims and the financial burden resulting from those claims, are highly stochastic. The model predicts that, in the median trajectory, the number of old-age pensions will increase by almost 5 million between 2017 and 2036, alongside increases in the number of disability pensions by 2036. These numbers take account of the increase in legal retirement ages as part of the 2007 pension reform. After the mid-2030s, however, a moderate decrease can be expected. The results show a clear need for further reforms, especially in the medium term.
    In: Comparative population studies, Wiesbaden : Bundesinst. für Bevölkerungsforschung, 2010, 47(2022), Seite 87-118, 1869-8999
    In: volume:47
    In: year:2022
    In: pages:87-118
    Language: English
    Keywords: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift
    Author information: Vanella, Patrizio 1985-
    Author information: Gonzalez, Miguel Rodriguez
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