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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    From Natural Resource Boom to Sustainable Economic Growth : Lessons for Mongolia (2015)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_84595945X
    Format: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475570635 , 9781475570632
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 15/90
    Content: Some resource-rich developing countries are in the process of harnessing immense mining resources towards inclusive growth and prosperity. Nevertheless, tapping into natural resources could be challenging given the large front-loaded investment, volatile capital flows and exposure to global commodity markets. Public investment is needed to remove the often-large infrastructure gap and unlock the economic potential. However, too rapid fiscal outlays could push the economy to its limit of absorptive capacity and increase macro-financial vulnerabilities. This paper utilizes a structural model-based approach to analyze macroeconomic impacts of different public investment strategies on key fiscal and non-fiscal variables such as debt, consumption, sovereign wealth fund, and real exchange rates. We apply the model to Mongolia and draw policy recommendations from the analysis. We find that fiscal policy adjustment, particularly moderating infrastructure investment and optimizing investment efficiency is needed to maintain macroeconomic and external stability, as well as to boost the long-term sustainable growth for Mongolia
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Gupta, Pranav From Natural Resource Boom to Sustainable Economic Growth: Lessons for Mongolia Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015 ISBN 9781475570632
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.5089/9781475570632.001
    URL: kostenfrei
    URL: kostenfrei
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    Stabi Berlin
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Debt Is Not Free / (2020)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9960178482802883
    Format: 1 online resource (68 pages)
    ISBN: 1-5135-2576-X
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates remain low. To shed light into this debate, this paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises, showing strong non-linearities. Moreover, beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases sharply regardless of the interest-growth differential. Our analysis also reveals that the interactions of public debt with inflation and external imbalances can be as important as debt levels. These results, while not necessarily implying causality, show governments should be wary of high public debt even when borrowing costs seem low.
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-5135-2376-7
    Language: English
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    Online Resource
    FU Berlin
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Debt Is Not Free / (2020)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edoccha_9960178482802883
    Format: 1 online resource (68 pages)
    ISBN: 1-5135-2576-X
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates remain low. To shed light into this debate, this paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises, showing strong non-linearities. Moreover, beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases sharply regardless of the interest-growth differential. Our analysis also reveals that the interactions of public debt with inflation and external imbalances can be as important as debt levels. These results, while not necessarily implying causality, show governments should be wary of high public debt even when borrowing costs seem low.
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-5135-2376-7
    Language: English
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    Charité
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Harnessing Resource Wealth for Inclusive Growth in Fragile States / (2015)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edoccha_9958236109002883
    Format: 1 online resource (55 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4983-6096-3 , 1-4755-8698-1
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: Like other fragile sub-Saharan African countries, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are seeking to harness their natural resource potential in the context of ambitious development strategies. This study investigates options for scaling up public investment and expanding social safety nets in a general equilibrium setting. First, it assesses the macro-fiscal implications of alternative fiscal rules for public investment, and, second, it explicitly accounts for redistribution through direct cash transfers. Results show that a sustainable non-resource deficit target is robust to the high uncertainty of resources output and prices, while delivering growth benefits through higher public investment. The scaling-up magnitudes, however, depend on the size of projected resource revenue and absorptive capacity. Adding a social transfer raises private consumption, suggesting that a fraction of the resource revenue could be used to expand safety nets.
    Note: Description based upon print version of record. , Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; Table; 1. Resource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Fragile Countries; II. Key Development Challenges in the MRU Countries; Figures; 1. Income Per Capita Trends in MRU Countries; 2. Social and Infrastructure Indicators in MRU Countries; III. Natural Resource Revenue Projections; 3. Public Investment by Source of Financing, 2003-13; Boxes; 1. Natural Resources Endowments in the MRU Countries; 4. Current Natural Resource Revenue in MRU Countries; 5. The IMF's FARI Model; IV. Fiscal Frameworks for MRU Countries , 6. Natural Resource Revenue Profiles Under Baseline and Optimistic ScenariosV. The DIGNAR Application; A. Model Description; 7. Public Investment Paths Under Alternative Fiscal Rules; B. Fiscal Approaches; 2. Public Investment Efficiency in MRU Countries; C. Simulation Results; 8. Public Investment Scaling Up; 9. Macroeconomic Impact of Social Transfers; 10. Investment Efficiency in the Baseline and Optimistic Scenarios; 11. Adverse Iron-Ore Price Shock; D. General Lessons; VI. Allocating Part of Resource Wealth to Social Protection; 3. The Recent Experience with Social Protection Systems , VII. ConclusionReferences; Appendixes; 1. Poverty Diagnostics and Safety Nets in the MRU Countries; 2. Fiscal Regimes and Resource Revenue Scenarios; 3. Model Specification, Solution Method, Calibration, and Simulation Results
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4983-9257-1
    Language: English
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    Charité
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Harnessing Resource Wealth for Inclusive Growth in Fragile States / (2015)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9958236109002883
    Format: 1 online resource (55 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4983-6096-3 , 1-4755-8698-1
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: Like other fragile sub-Saharan African countries, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are seeking to harness their natural resource potential in the context of ambitious development strategies. This study investigates options for scaling up public investment and expanding social safety nets in a general equilibrium setting. First, it assesses the macro-fiscal implications of alternative fiscal rules for public investment, and, second, it explicitly accounts for redistribution through direct cash transfers. Results show that a sustainable non-resource deficit target is robust to the high uncertainty of resources output and prices, while delivering growth benefits through higher public investment. The scaling-up magnitudes, however, depend on the size of projected resource revenue and absorptive capacity. Adding a social transfer raises private consumption, suggesting that a fraction of the resource revenue could be used to expand safety nets.
    Note: Description based upon print version of record. , Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; Table; 1. Resource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Fragile Countries; II. Key Development Challenges in the MRU Countries; Figures; 1. Income Per Capita Trends in MRU Countries; 2. Social and Infrastructure Indicators in MRU Countries; III. Natural Resource Revenue Projections; 3. Public Investment by Source of Financing, 2003-13; Boxes; 1. Natural Resources Endowments in the MRU Countries; 4. Current Natural Resource Revenue in MRU Countries; 5. The IMF's FARI Model; IV. Fiscal Frameworks for MRU Countries , 6. Natural Resource Revenue Profiles Under Baseline and Optimistic ScenariosV. The DIGNAR Application; A. Model Description; 7. Public Investment Paths Under Alternative Fiscal Rules; B. Fiscal Approaches; 2. Public Investment Efficiency in MRU Countries; C. Simulation Results; 8. Public Investment Scaling Up; 9. Macroeconomic Impact of Social Transfers; 10. Investment Efficiency in the Baseline and Optimistic Scenarios; 11. Adverse Iron-Ore Price Shock; D. General Lessons; VI. Allocating Part of Resource Wealth to Social Protection; 3. The Recent Experience with Social Protection Systems , VII. ConclusionReferences; Appendixes; 1. Poverty Diagnostics and Safety Nets in the MRU Countries; 2. Fiscal Regimes and Resource Revenue Scenarios; 3. Model Specification, Solution Method, Calibration, and Simulation Results
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4983-9257-1
    Language: English
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    Online Resource
    FU Berlin
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Introducing a Semi-Structural Macroeconomic Model for Rwanda / (2014)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edoccha_9958076201402883
    Format: 1 online resource (38 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4983-0479-6 , 1-4983-5652-4 , 1-4983-5741-5
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: We develop a simple semistructural model for the Rwandan economy to better understand the monetary policy transmission mechanism. A key feature of the model is the introduction of a modified uncovered interest parity condition to capture key structural features of Rwanda’s economy and policy framework, such as the limited degree of capital mobility. A filtration of the observed data through the model allows us to illustrate the contribution of various factors to inflation dynamics and its deviations from the inflation target. Our results, consistent with evidence for other countries in the region, suggest that food and oil prices as well as the exchange rate have accounted for the bulk of inflation dynamics in Rwanda.
    Note: Description based upon print version of record. , Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. An Overview of Rwanda's Economy and Monetary Policy Regime; Figures; Figure 1. Rwanda: Selected Economic Indicators, 2006-2013; III. The Model: Outline, Calibration, Filtering, and Forecast Exercise; A. The Model; B. Data and Calibration; IV. Filtering Rwandan Data through the Model; A. Forecast; V. Conclusions; Tables; Table 1: Data Series; Table 2: Calibration; Table 3: Goodness of fit; Figure 2: Impulse Response Functions I (Demand Shock); Figure 3: Impulse Response Functions II (Supply Shocks: Core, Food, Oil Inflation) , Figure 4: Impulse Response Functions III (Interest Rate Shock)Figure 5: Real Exchange Rate Trend and Gap; Figure 6: Real Interest Rate Trend and Gap; Figure 7: Output Trend and Gap; Figure 8: Shock Decomposition of Headline Inflation (YoY); Figure 9: Shock Decomposition of Core Inflation (YoY); Figure 10: Shock Decomposition of Food Inflation (YoY); Figure 11: Shock Decomposition of Oil Inflation (YoY); Figure 12: Shock Decomposition of the Output Gap; Figure 13: Exogenous Variables; Figure 14: In-sample Forecast of the Main Variables; Figure 15: Out-of-sample Forecast of the Main Variables , Figure 16: Out-of-sample Forecasts of Main Variables- ContinuedVI. References , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4983-9834-0
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-322-14138-X
    Language: English
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    Charité
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Introducing a Semi-Structural Macroeconomic Model for Rwanda / (2014)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9958076201402883
    Format: 1 online resource (38 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4983-0479-6 , 1-4983-5652-4 , 1-4983-5741-5
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: We develop a simple semistructural model for the Rwandan economy to better understand the monetary policy transmission mechanism. A key feature of the model is the introduction of a modified uncovered interest parity condition to capture key structural features of Rwanda’s economy and policy framework, such as the limited degree of capital mobility. A filtration of the observed data through the model allows us to illustrate the contribution of various factors to inflation dynamics and its deviations from the inflation target. Our results, consistent with evidence for other countries in the region, suggest that food and oil prices as well as the exchange rate have accounted for the bulk of inflation dynamics in Rwanda.
    Note: Description based upon print version of record. , Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. An Overview of Rwanda's Economy and Monetary Policy Regime; Figures; Figure 1. Rwanda: Selected Economic Indicators, 2006-2013; III. The Model: Outline, Calibration, Filtering, and Forecast Exercise; A. The Model; B. Data and Calibration; IV. Filtering Rwandan Data through the Model; A. Forecast; V. Conclusions; Tables; Table 1: Data Series; Table 2: Calibration; Table 3: Goodness of fit; Figure 2: Impulse Response Functions I (Demand Shock); Figure 3: Impulse Response Functions II (Supply Shocks: Core, Food, Oil Inflation) , Figure 4: Impulse Response Functions III (Interest Rate Shock)Figure 5: Real Exchange Rate Trend and Gap; Figure 6: Real Interest Rate Trend and Gap; Figure 7: Output Trend and Gap; Figure 8: Shock Decomposition of Headline Inflation (YoY); Figure 9: Shock Decomposition of Core Inflation (YoY); Figure 10: Shock Decomposition of Food Inflation (YoY); Figure 11: Shock Decomposition of Oil Inflation (YoY); Figure 12: Shock Decomposition of the Output Gap; Figure 13: Exogenous Variables; Figure 14: In-sample Forecast of the Main Variables; Figure 15: Out-of-sample Forecast of the Main Variables , Figure 16: Out-of-sample Forecasts of Main Variables- ContinuedVI. References , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4983-9834-0
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-322-14138-X
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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    Online Resource
    FU Berlin
  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    From Natural Resource Boom to Sustainable Economic Growth : Lessons for Mongolia (2015)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edoccha_9958064572202883
    Format: 1 online resource (53 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4755-5023-5 , 1-4755-2112-X
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: Some resource-rich developing countries are in the process of harnessing immense mining resources towards inclusive growth and prosperity. Nevertheless, tapping into natural resources could be challenging given the large front-loaded investment, volatile capital flows and exposure to global commodity markets. Public investment is needed to remove the often-large infrastructure gap and unlock the economic potential. However, too rapid fiscal outlays could push the economy to its limit of absorptive capacity and increase macro-financial vulnerabilities. This paper utilizes a structural model-based approach to analyze macroeconomic impacts of different public investment strategies on key fiscal and non-fiscal variables such as debt, consumption, sovereign wealth fund, and real exchange rates. We apply the model to Mongolia and draw policy recommendations from the analysis. We find that fiscal policy adjustment, particularly moderating infrastructure investment and optimizing investment efficiency is needed to maintain macroeconomic and external stability, as well as to boost the long-term sustainable growth for Mongolia.
    Note: Description based upon print version of record. , Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Country Background; III. A Model-Based Analysis of Mongolia's Natural Resource Revenues; A. Model; B. Calibration: Applying to Mongolia; C. Assumptions: Natural Resource Revenue and Investment Paths; Figure 1. Assumptions: Resource Output and Public Investment Paths; D. Efficiency and Absorptive Capacity; Figure 2. Projection of Public Debt and Sovereign Welfare Fund; Figure 3. Paths of Other Variables; Figure 4. Robustness Check: Different Efficiency; IV. Simulation Results and Policy Implication; A. Baseline Scenario , B. Adverse Scenario: Negative Resource ShockC. Robustness Check; V. Conclusions; VI. Appendix; VII. References; Table 1. Calibration of Key Parameters; Footnotes , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4755-7063-5
    Language: English
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    Online Resource
    Charité
  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    From Natural Resource Boom to Sustainable Economic Growth : Lessons for Mongolia (2015)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9958064572202883
    Format: 1 online resource (53 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4755-5023-5 , 1-4755-2112-X
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: Some resource-rich developing countries are in the process of harnessing immense mining resources towards inclusive growth and prosperity. Nevertheless, tapping into natural resources could be challenging given the large front-loaded investment, volatile capital flows and exposure to global commodity markets. Public investment is needed to remove the often-large infrastructure gap and unlock the economic potential. However, too rapid fiscal outlays could push the economy to its limit of absorptive capacity and increase macro-financial vulnerabilities. This paper utilizes a structural model-based approach to analyze macroeconomic impacts of different public investment strategies on key fiscal and non-fiscal variables such as debt, consumption, sovereign wealth fund, and real exchange rates. We apply the model to Mongolia and draw policy recommendations from the analysis. We find that fiscal policy adjustment, particularly moderating infrastructure investment and optimizing investment efficiency is needed to maintain macroeconomic and external stability, as well as to boost the long-term sustainable growth for Mongolia.
    Note: Description based upon print version of record. , Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Country Background; III. A Model-Based Analysis of Mongolia's Natural Resource Revenues; A. Model; B. Calibration: Applying to Mongolia; C. Assumptions: Natural Resource Revenue and Investment Paths; Figure 1. Assumptions: Resource Output and Public Investment Paths; D. Efficiency and Absorptive Capacity; Figure 2. Projection of Public Debt and Sovereign Welfare Fund; Figure 3. Paths of Other Variables; Figure 4. Robustness Check: Different Efficiency; IV. Simulation Results and Policy Implication; A. Baseline Scenario , B. Adverse Scenario: Negative Resource ShockC. Robustness Check; V. Conclusions; VI. Appendix; VII. References; Table 1. Calibration of Key Parameters; Footnotes , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4755-7063-5
    Language: English
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    Online Resource
    FU Berlin
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Quarterly Projection Model for India : Key Elements and Properties (2017)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9959240670502883
    Format: 1 online resource (42 pages) : , illustrations (some color), charts, tables, graphs.
    ISBN: 1-4755-8422-9 , 1-4755-8427-X
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4755-7870-9
    Language: English
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    Online Resource
    FU Berlin
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